shminux comments on Fermi Estimates - Less Wrong

51 Post author: lukeprog 11 April 2013 05:52PM

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Comment author: shminux 26 April 2013 07:23:40PM *  1 point [-]

I am looking for dx where exp(-((x+dx)/(2sigma))^2) - exp( -(x/2sigma)^2)

Assuming dx << x, this is approximated by a differential, (-xdx/sigma^2) * exp( -(x/2sigma)^2, or the relative drop of dx/sigma^2. You want it to be 1/2 (lost one person out of two), your x = 4 sigma, so dx=1/8 sigma, which is under a year. Of course, it's rather optimistic to apply the normal distribution to this problem, to begin with.