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CCC comments on Fermi Estimates - Less Wrong
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Just tried one today: how safe are planes?
Last time I was at an airport, the screen had five flights, three-hour period. It was peak time, so multiplied only by fifteen, so 25 flights from Chennai airport per day.
~200 countries in the world, so guessed 500 adjusted airports (effective no. of airports of size of Chennai airport), giving 12500 flights a day and 3*10^6 flights a year.
One crash a year from my news memories, gives possibility of plane crash as 1/310^-6 ~ 310^-7.
Probability of dying in a plane crash is 3*10^-7 (source). At hundred dead passengers a flight, fatal crashes are ~ 10^-5. Off by two orders of magnitude.
If there are 3*10^6 flights in a year, and one randomly selected plane crashes per year on average, with all aboard being killed, then the chances of dying in an airplane crash are%20*10%5E{-6})
, surely?
Yes, there's a hundred dead passengers on the flight that went down, but there's also a hundred living passengers on every flight that didn't go down. The hundreds cancel out.
Wow, that was stupid of me. Of course they do! And thanks.