= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Randaly comments on What Rate of Return Should You Expect? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (23)
The US is unusually large and developed precisely because it has had abnormally high growth (and also, therefore, high immigration).
It's due to a combination of being old and having sustained abnormally high growth. If it's sustained, then it's not just luck. You can invest in the US and know that it will continue growing like it did before. It's not cherry-picking.
Kinda the point of survivorship bias and other selection effects is that you can get what looked like 'sustained' performance just by luck...
Said many people in every bubble ever.