MileyCyrus comments on What Rate of Return Should You Expect? - Less Wrong

11 Post author: jkaufman 07 April 2013 01:40PM

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Comment author: MileyCyrus 08 April 2013 05:48:43AM 2 points [-]

If you're saving for your own retirement, you might want to consider the risk of dying before you can spend that money. A 25-year old male has an 18.6% chance of dying before he reaches 65, so he should discount his expected return accordingly.

Comment author: Error 08 April 2013 01:00:14PM 2 points [-]

Not just the risk of dying; consider also the risk of some world event that makes your savings irrelevant, like a Singularity or a global economic crash.

Or, on a much smaller scale, the risk of switching jobs. My employer match doesn't vest until I've been on staff three years; the numbers for maxing it out look very different if I want to look for a better position elsewhere before then.

Comment author: AspiringRationalist 10 April 2013 03:17:10AM 0 points [-]

If you're referring to a 401k, it's worth maxing it even without the employer match, because the tax incentives are so large.

Comment author: wedrifid 08 April 2013 06:02:21AM *  2 points [-]

If you're saving for your own retirement, you might want to consider the risk of dying before you can spend that money. A 25-year old male has an 18.6% chance of dying before he reaches 65, so he should discount his expected return accordingly.

Note that the discount is in the direction of how much you value the assets in your estate after death. ie. Altruistic (and nepotistic) preferences still apply so do not simply multiply by (1-0.186).