Vaniver comments on Litany of Instrumentarski - Less Wrong

1 Post author: shminux 09 April 2013 03:07PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 09 April 2013 08:48:17PM 2 points [-]

Maybe the first line should be modified to something like "If I later find a diamond in the box...", or something. How about the following?

I disagree with this modification. The first one explicitly focuses on the causal effect of the belief, but the second one focuses on the temporal successors of the belief. The first is much stronger, more useful, and more general than the second.

Comment author: shminux 09 April 2013 08:57:20PM 3 points [-]

Interesting. Do you mind elaborating?

Comment author: Vaniver 09 April 2013 11:48:50PM 2 points [-]

Stronger because the second looks like a codification of "post hoc ergo propter hoc," better because the relationships are narrower, and more general because it responds well to situations where you let causation flow backwards in time. (For example, the first will let you pay in the Parfit's Hitchhiker scenario.)

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