Jack comments on Cold fusion: real after all? - Less Wrong

-3 Post author: ahbwramc 17 April 2013 07:27PM

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Comment author: Jack 17 April 2013 07:51:55PM 2 points [-]

So what assets should I be purchasing if this is all right?

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 17 April 2013 09:17:44PM 3 points [-]

Anything to do with palladium production-- futures, mines, refining.

Short praseodymium.

(The first is probably more sensible advice than the second.)

Comment author: OrphanWilde 17 April 2013 09:21:22PM 1 point [-]

Deuterium production, as well.

Comment author: Decius 17 April 2013 08:30:21PM 1 point [-]

Stock in the producers of steam plants. The typical method of converting heat to electrical power is to boil water, run the steam through a turbine to get rotary mechanical energy, and use that to turn a generator shaft.

Coal uses the same basic idea, but uses coal to make heat; diesel and natural gas generators burn the fuel to create rotational mechanical energy directly.

Conversion of diesel and natural gas power generation to nuclear process of any kind is likely to result in a lot of steam plant construction.

Alternately, you could buy training as a steamfitter, since a breakthrough that results in a large number of steam plants being built will spike demand for people who can do the work, and the training takes several years.

Comment author: ahbwramc 17 April 2013 08:17:53PM 0 points [-]

Not being very knowledgeable about the economy, this is one of the things I hoped to ask LessWrong. The best ROI would probably be "whatever startup first commercializes a cold fusion device." Lacking that specific knowledge, though, I don't know. Shorting oil companies?

Comment author: Kawoomba 17 April 2013 08:31:45PM 0 points [-]

Shorting oil companies?

Those are the ones with the economic and political clout to delay, patent, lie and buy their way into benefitting from this development, if it proves true.

They don't actually care about oil as in carbohydrates, they care about "stuff we can use to make oodles of money".

Comment author: DaFranker 18 April 2013 01:41:16PM 1 point [-]

People used to say the same thing about Hollywood. Now look at what Hollywood is doing.

I don't see why big bulky bureaucratic oil companies would fare any better at adjusting to change and new technologies.

Outside view says short them.

Comment author: drethelin 18 April 2013 04:08:42PM 1 point [-]

outside view? doesn't the even more outside view have a saying about markets and solvency and shorting?

Comment author: DaFranker 18 April 2013 04:53:04PM *  1 point [-]

Probably. I do not know of any such sayings, and do not know much about markets and solvency and shorting in general.

Perhaps a better rephrasing would be that a naive first outside view should conclude that oil companies will be just as stuck-in-their-ways as other examples have been or still are.

Kawoomba also makes a few other good points that are worth considering, tough I'm not sure they all add up to them doing all that much better than everyone else on the "update for new technologies" front.

Comment author: drethelin 18 April 2013 11:22:54PM 5 points [-]

"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." is the saying.

Comment author: Kawoomba 18 April 2013 01:56:03PM 0 points [-]

Energy companies are in a reference class of their own, and their political influence, lobbying power and entrenchment comparable if at all to that of banks and financial institutions. They are transnational players that many see as transplanting state actors, even when some of them (e.g. Chinese energy companies, Russian energy companies) act as surrogates for their state. They are not like Hollywood.

If there is a new way to produce nigh-unlimited energy, it won't be long until there's a law to regulate it, and that law will be heavily influenced by energy companies. Or will they be stopped by public pressure and idealistic politicians? More like the lone battle of Elizabeth Warren, failing to get the simplest kind of regulation passed in the banking sector.

Let's not even get into the broken patent system which can be weaponized by the highest bidder.

Comment author: Jack 17 April 2013 08:49:12PM 1 point [-]

How much heavy water does the device use? Does Swartz have patents?

Comment author: novalis 17 April 2013 11:47:16PM *  1 point [-]

Funny that you should ask that. In fact, the patent office rejects cold fusion patents. When Swartz tried to file some patents, he was rejected and sued; he ultimately lost (see Swartz, 232 F.3d 862, 56 USPQ2d 1703, (Fed. Cir. 2000)). The only surprise here is that the patent office managed to get this one right -- in my field (software), the patent office is totally fucked. If CF worked, it would be relatively easy to demonstrate: just generate a bunch of power with it on a small power input, in a way that others can replicate (even if you have to ship them your equipment).

Comment author: knb 18 April 2013 03:45:36AM 0 points [-]

I wouldn't short oil companies, since I doubt cold fusion would be useful for powering cars directly, since the methods produce warmer water, not directly usable electricity. Hot water isn't really practical for powering cars.