Well, my probability has gone down quite a bit, obviously. I didn't know about the failed replication that OrphanWilde linked; if I had, it might have been enough to stop me from writing the whole thing up. That being said, my probability is still high enough to be in the "this is interesting" range. I'll be keeping an eye out for cold fusion news. I certainly won't be making any investments based on the assumption that it's real.