gwern comments on Explicit and tacit rationality - Less Wrong

40 Post author: lukeprog 09 April 2013 11:33PM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 16 April 2013 03:18:38PM 0 points [-]

You can't in general use observational data (e.g. what you call "evidence") to figure out causal relationships. You need causal assumptions somewhere.

What do you think of this challenge, to detect causality from nothing but a set of pairs of values of unnamed variables?

Comment author: gwern 16 April 2013 04:06:19PM 0 points [-]

Gelman seems skeptical.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 16 April 2013 04:30:17PM 0 points [-]

I saw that, but I didn't see much substance to his remarks, nor in the comments.

Here is a paper surveying methods of methods of causal analysis for such non-interventional data, and summarising the causal assumptions that they make:

"New methods for separating causes from effects in genomics data"
Alexander Statnikov, Mikael Henaff, Nikita I Lytkin, Constantin F Aliferis