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Luke_A_Somers comments on Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence - Less Wrong
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1) It's been applied to cryonic preservation, fer crying out loud. It's reasonable to suspect that the probability of that working is low, but anyone who says with current evidence that the probability is beyond astronomically low is being too silly to take seriously.
The benefit of cryonic preservation isn't astronomically high, though, so you don't need a probability that is beyond astronomically low. First of all,even an infinitely long life after being revived only has a finite present value, and possibly a very low one, because of discounting. Second, the benefit from cryonics is the benefit you'd gain from being revived after being cryonically preserved, minus the benefit that you'd gain from being revived after not cryonically preserved. (A really advanced society might be able to simulate us. If simulations count as us, simulating us counts as reviving us without the need for cryonic preservation.)
I do not think that you have gotten Luke's point. He was addressing your point #1, not trying to make a substantive argument in favor of cryonics.
I don't think that either Pascal's Wager or Pascal's Mugging requires a probability that is astronomically low. It just requires that the size of the purported benefit be large enough that it overwhelms the low probability of the event.
No, otherwise taking good but long-shot bets would be a case of Pascal's Mugging.
It needs to involve a breakdown in the math because you're basically trying to evaluate infinity/infinity