Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence - Less Wrong
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That hyperbole one. I wasn't intending the primary focus of this post to be on the notion of a super-update - I'm not sure if that part needs to make it into AIs, though it seems to me to be partially responsible for my humanlike foibles in the Horrible LHC Inconsistency. I agree that this notion is actually very underspecified but so is almost all of bounded logical uncertainty.
Using "a tad" to mean "very" is understatement, not hyperbole.
One could call it hypobole.
Specifically, litotes.