DSimon comments on Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence - Less Wrong
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Okay, that makes sense. In that case, though, where's the problem? Claims in the form of "not only is X a true event, with details A, B, C, ..., but also it's the greatest event by metric M that has ever happened" should have low enough probability that a human writing it down specifically in advance as a hypothesis to consider, without being prompted by some specific evidence, is doing really badly epistemologically.
Also, I'm confused about the relationship to MWI.