DanielLC comments on Pascal's Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence - Less Wrong
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It's not that odd. If someone asked to borrow ten dollars, and said he'd pay you back tomorrow, would you believe him? What if he said he'd pay back $20? $100? $1000000? All the money in the world?
At some point, the probability goes down faster than the price goes up. That's why you can't just get a loan and keep raising the interest to make up for the fact that you probably won't ever pay it back.