Laughing at Fermi for 10% is uncharitable.

It sounds like his heuristic for deciding what avenue of research to follow rejected chain reactions. If, as Eliezer claims, >10% should have been obvious to Fermi if he really thought about it, then we can conclude that he didn't feel a need to think about it, for whatever reason.

I do wish senior/brilliant thinkers wouldn't discourage anyone based on their take of something they haven't really thought about, but that probably doesn't stop the really bold upstarts.

I'd like to understand better why really bright and hard-working people don't bother with real thinking when having discussions about their area of theoretical expertise. I guess a social interaction often demands snap decisions.

"heroic epistemology" - that's what all those now-rich startups used, right?

I've fallen out of love with weighing "if people like me ...". Yes, I'd like to make love, and not war, if I were on a boat with 50 clones of myself. But does this help me decide or achieve anything in reality? Aren't there more interesting things to work on than fantasy? I already am the kind of person I am. (partial rebuttal: Eliezer is just the kind of person who's changed/focused by "if people like me ..." daydreams!)