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private_messaging comments on Being Half-Rational About Pascal's Wager is Even Worse - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 18 April 2013 05:20AM

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Comment author: private_messaging 18 April 2013 04:34:32PM *  6 points [-]

Because they didn't know if fission produced enough prompt neutrons, which is clear from the quoted passage, and probably also because Fermi has estimated that there's on the order of 10 other propositions about the results from fission which he, if presented with them by an equally enthusiastic proponent, would find comparably plausible. I'm thinking that in the alternate realities where fission does something other than producing sufficient number of neutrons (about 3 on the average), you'd assign likewise high number to them by hindsight, with a sum greater than 1 (so stop calling it probability already).