Stabilizer comments on Litany of a Bright Dilettante - Less Wrong

55 Post author: shminux 18 April 2013 05:06AM

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Comment author: Stabilizer 19 April 2013 01:33:02AM *  4 points [-]

I notice that people (including me) are especially prone to this in economics. Everyone feels that they can figure out the correct tax/foreign/monetary/regulatory policy simply by using some trivial demand-supply arguments. Further, they always use a moral axis as well (arguing about fairness/equality/social justice), which always dilutes whatever little insight they might have had.

Worse: economists are highly distrusted as experts. One friend told me that economics as a field has a huge "conservative bias", and you can't trust their methods because of this reason. Chalk it up to politics being the mind-killer.

Any suggestions on how to handle these situations?

Comment author: TitaniumDragon 20 April 2013 10:39:00PM 1 point [-]

You assume that economists are actually an expert on the economy. They aren't. That's the problem.

Economics only really has a good understanding of very low level effects, and even there things are very difficult to truly deal with. The law of supply and demand, for instance, is really less of a law and more of a guideline - the only way to actually determine real world behavior is experimentation, as there is no single equation you can plug things into to get a result out of. And that's something SIMPLE. Ask them how to fix the economy? They have no ability to do that because they don't actually understand the economy, nor how it works.

A great deal of economics is down to ideology rather than actual reality. There are a lot of economic models but they either only represent very narrow areas or they don't actually match up with reality. Ask ten economists what happens when you raise minimum wage and you'll get ten answers - three will agree one way, three will agree the other, and the other four will give you two answers each.

The problem is that the economy is such a hideously complex system that economists have no way to actually simulate it or experiment with it (unless you argue what is actually done is an experiment, but if it is, it is a very poorly controlled one with a ridiculous number of variables).

Indeed, if you look at reality, it is obvious that economists are NOT experts on the economy. How can you tell this? Because economists make their money by being paid to be economists.

The best economist in the world is probably Warren Buffet, because he makes his money by actually making predictions about the economy and then makes money based on how good they are (as well as how well he manages his business). But ask him about tax policy and he'll still likely not have any better answer than you can get via thought and intuition.

Empirical evidence suggests that economists are not experts on the economy.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 19 April 2013 06:58:19PM *  1 point [-]

One friend told me that economics as a field has a huge "conservative bias", and you can't trust their methods because of this reason.

Which is strange, since (according to The Making of an Economist, Redux by David Colander) only 16% of economists are conservative (while 47% are liberal, 24% are moderate, and 6% are radical). Perhaps he meant that the field of economics has less of a non-conservative bias than other fields (like sociology and political science), which I'm pretty sure is true.

Comment author: [deleted] 19 April 2013 02:04:58AM 1 point [-]

For yourself? Study economics until you can properly trust or distrust the experts.

For other people, ignore or study, but don't engage.

Comment author: wedrifid 19 April 2013 03:30:40AM 6 points [-]

For yourself? Study economics until you can properly trust or distrust the experts.

And, to expand on your point, study economics until you can properly identify the experts. In a field with such strong political implications status is not necessarily (or even often) assigned according to object level competence.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 19 April 2013 03:14:31PM 5 points [-]

Study the field until you determine whether there are experts. Can anyone successfully predict outcomes?

Comment author: shminux 19 April 2013 02:13:46AM -1 points [-]

I notice that people (including me) are especially prone to this in economics.

First, no area is as bad as sports :) Now, I don't know much about economics, but let us assume for the moment that it is a real natural science and it is impossible to get to the leading edge without investing thousands of hours of hard work, then repeating and alieving the mantra I have suggested in the OP would be my recommendation. One way to convert this belief into alief could be looking through the relevant textbooks and realizing that you cannot possibly understand the advanced stuff without learning the basics first. And real-life economic policy is probably as advanced as it gets. Sort of an economic version of this.

Now, it is not necessarily true that economics is like other natural sciences, or like law or medicine. Maybe it is more like alchemy and what the subject matter experts learn over a decade or two does not help at all with giving sound economic advice. Maybe one or two terms is enough, and the rest is just fluff. I don't know. But this point ought to be addressed first, somehow...

Comment author: Desrtopa 19 April 2013 03:06:56AM *  2 points [-]

Now, it is not necessarily true that economics is like other natural sciences, or like law or medicine.

I'm confused by this categorization of law.

I would suggest that economics is not best categorized as a science, since models are rarely tested and then discarded on falsification (real life conditions are rarely good enough at isolating variables to convince proponents that a hypothesis has seriously been falsified,) but that good economists probably do have expertise that an interested amateur couldn't duplicate with a few key insights. On the other hand, there's plenty of room in the field for economists whose learning amounts to indoctrination in models which offer no meaningful predictive advantage over ignorance.

I do not claim sufficient expertise to say who falls into what category.

Comment author: shminux 19 April 2013 04:44:08AM 0 points [-]

I don't know much about law, except that one needs to know a lot about it to pass the bar exam and to successfully navigate through many legal issues.

I share your suspicions about economics, but I have not read any definitive analysis on the matter.

Comment author: Desrtopa 19 April 2013 05:55:03AM 0 points [-]

Now that I look back at your comment, I see that I misread it in the first place; I missed the "or" before "like law or medicine."