MugaSofer comments on The Unselfish Trolley Problem - Less Wrong
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What are the actual odds of that, though? Compared to the good you do (you're on LW, so I'm guessing you're more likely to do some rational altruism and save more than five lives than they are.)
I would assume you're massively biased/emotionally compromised with regards to that scenario, just for evopsych reasons. So I'd be iffy about using that as a yard stick.
That said, you also presumably know them better, so there's the risk that you're treating the five victims as faceless NPCs.
Ultimately, it comes down the instrumental values. The five get a x5 and also automatically save four net lives, so you would have to be noticeably above average - but I'd say there's enough low-hanging fruit around that that's far from impossible.
After all, it's not like these people are signed up for cryonics.