Rating agencies have historically actually been very good at predicting corporate defaults.
I have data on this but it is not public. However, I suspect there is public data available as well.
I saw a list at wikipedia somewhere. I wonder if it is already priced in.
There's a lot of background mess in our mental pictures of the world. We try and be accurate on important issues, but a whole lot of the less important stuff we pick up from the media, the movies, and random impressions. And once these impressions are in our mental pictures, they just don't go away - until we find a fact that causes us to say "huh", and reassess.
Here are three facts that have caused that "huh" in me, recently, and completely rearranged minor parts of my mental map. I'm sharing them here, because that experience is a valuable one.