"All models are false."
I agree! My claim is game theory / economics / voting theory are complicated, but well-developed and informative models for human preferences. If they are wrong (as all models are..) they are wrong for more subtle reasons than utility theory. On LW people spend far too much time thinking/talking about utility theory and preferences vs these alternatives. Discourse will improve if more mindshare is moved to better models.
"All models are false."
I've never liked that slogan, not even with the completion "but some are useful". Of course, statistics is the science of how to make the best of bad data, and if bad data is all you can get, statistics is what you do. But "all models are wrong" strikes me as furnishing an easy excuse for intellectual laziness.
Rain causes mud; mud does not cause rain. Is that a "wrong model"? Matter is made of atoms; atoms are made of electrons, protons, and neutrons. Is that a "wrong model"? The s...
Intransitive preferences are a demonstrable characteristic of human behaviour. So why am I having such trouble coming up with real-world examples of money-pumping?
"Because I'm not smart or imaginative enough" is a perfectly plausible answer, but I've been mulling this one over on-and-off for a few months now, and I haven't come up with a single example that really captures what I consider to be the salient features of the scenario: a tangled hierarchy of preferences, and exploitation of that tangled hierarchy by an agent who cyclically trades the objects in that hierarchy, generating trade surplus on each transaction.
It's possible that I am in fact thinking about money-pumping all wrong. All the nearly-but-not-quite examples I came up with (amongst which were bank overdraft fees, Weight Watchers, and exploitation of addiction) had the characteristics of looking like swindles or the result of personal failings, but from the inside, money-pumping must presumably feel like a series of gratifying transactions. We would want any cases of money-pumping we were vulnerable to.
At the moment, I have the following hypotheses for the poverty of real-world money-pumping cases:
Does anyone have anything to add, or any good/arguable cases of real-world money-pumping?