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DanArmak comments on Three more ways identity can be a curse - Less Wrong
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That is much less likely than the other way around, though. That's the point of regression to the mean.
But this is still evidence that his future posts will be at least somewhat above average! If not quite as good as this one.
It's the only post by this poster so far, so it's exactly at the mean level of their posts. Going by that, we'd expect the next post to be of the same level as this one.
On the other hand, if you want to look at the mean level of other people's posts, it's not clear what reference class to use. All posts ever? All posts except the really bad one (because this poster doesn't seem to be a troll / stupid / misguided)? All first posts? All first posts by people who have been reading LW for as long as User:gothgirl420666, however long that was? The posts by the same username on Reddit? Posts on subjects related to this one? Posts grouped with this one by some classifier algorithm?