shminux comments on New report: Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics - Less Wrong

45 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 April 2013 11:14PM

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Comment author: shminux 01 May 2013 04:36:15AM 5 points [-]

I'm also wondering about the estimated FOOM date of 2035 (presumably give or take a decade), is there an explicit calculation of it, and hopefully the confidence intervals as well?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 May 2013 04:26:29PM 0 points [-]

Where does it say 2035 in the text? How did you get the impression that this was an estimation?

Comment author: shminux 01 May 2013 04:30:48PM 6 points [-]

Maybe I misunderstood this passage:

(Even this kind of “I don’t know” still has to correspond to some probability distribution over decades, just not a tight distribution. I’m currently trying to sort out with Carl Shulman why my median is more like 2035 and his median is more like 2080. Neither of us thinks we can time it down to the decade—we have very broad credible intervals in both cases—but the discrepancy between our “I don’t knows” is too large to ignore.)

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 May 2013 04:40:22PM 3 points [-]

Hm. Thanks for pointing that out. Maybe I should remove the specific dates from there and just say we were 45 years apart. I think in a lot of ways trying to time the intelligence explosion is a huge distraction. An important probability distribution, but still a huge distraction.

Comment author: shminux 01 May 2013 04:50:38PM *  13 points [-]

Well, you mentioned on occasion that this date affects your resource allocation between CFAR and MIRI, so it might be a worthwhile exercise to make the calculation explicit and subject to scrutiny, if not in the report, then some place else.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 May 2013 05:42:07PM 6 points [-]

Fair point. We're still struggling to express things verbally, but yeah.

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