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James_Miller comments on Rationality Quotes May 2013 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: katydee 03 May 2013 08:02PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 01 May 2013 04:49:10PM 39 points [-]

Unless challenged to think otherwise, people quickly move from "Phew! Dodged a bullet on that one!" to "I'm a great bullet-dodger."

Discussing the "Near-miss bias" which they define as a tendency to "take more risk after an event in which luck played a critical role in deciding the event's [favorable] outcome."

Top Dog: The Science of Winning and Losing by Po Bronson and Ashley Merryman, page 150.

Comment author: Plubbingworth 02 June 2013 02:40:50AM 2 points [-]

There wouldn't happen to be anything that's sort of the opposite of this, would there? Screwing up often but sporadically, not due to inherent inability but because of simple inexpertise, making you say "I'm bad at this" more often?

Comment author: JStewart 28 May 2013 02:04:58AM *  1 point [-]

Interesting. I wonder to what extent this corrects for people's risk-aversion. Success is evidence against the riskiness of the action.