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army1987 comments on Rationality Quotes May 2013 - Less Wrong
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This is a claim about reality. Do we actually know that pulling numbers out of your arse actually does produce better results than pulling the decisions out directly? Or does it just feel better, because you have a theory now?
IME pulling decisions directly out of my arse usually produces results so bad that it'd be hard to do worse, except in certain situations in which it wouldn't even occur to me to use numbers anyway.