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Warrigal comments on Rationality Quotes May 2013 - Less Wrong
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How do we know that it still works even when the Vulcan doesn't believe what they're saying?
If it doesn't, presumably the Vulcan should then immediately adjust to believing the high-odds-against-us number. (This would admittedly be much more difficult to pull off consistently.)
Maybe Vulcans are physiologically incapable of believing anything with insufficient evidence.