Romashka comments on Rationality Quotes May 2013 - Less Wrong

6 Post author: katydee 03 May 2013 08:02PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 02 May 2013 03:48:24AM *  112 points [-]

"The spatial anomaly has interacted with the tachyonic radiation in the nebula, it's interfering with our sensors. It's impossible to get a reading."

"There's no time - we'll have to take the ship straight through it!"

"Captain, I advise against this course of action. I have calculated the odds against our surviving such an action at three thousand, seven hundred and forty-five to one."

"Damn the odds, we've got to try... wait a second. Where, exactly, did you get that number from?"

"I hardly think this is the time for-"

"No. No, fuck you, this is exactly the time. The fate of the galaxy is at stake. Trillions of lives are hanging in the balance. You just pulled four significant digits out of your ass, I want to see you show your goddamn work."

"Well, I used the actuarial data from the past fifty years, relating to known cases of ships passing through nebulae that are interacting with spatial anomalies. There have been approximately two million such incidents reported, with only five hundred and forty-two incidents in which the ship in question survived intact."

"And did you at all take into account that ship building technology has improved over the past fifty years, and that ours is not necessarily an average ship?"

"Indeed I did, Captain. I weighted the cases differently based on how recent they were, and how close the ship in question was in build to our own. For example, one of the incidents with a happy ending was forty-seven years ago, but their ship was a model roughly five times our size. As such, I counted the incident as having twenty-four percent of the relevance of a standard case."

"But what of our ship's moxie? Can you take determination and drive and the human spirit into account?"

"As a matter of fact I can, Captain. In our three-year history together, I have observed that both you and this ship manage to beat the odds with a measurable regularity. To be exact, we tend to succeed twenty-four point five percent more often than the statistics would otherwise indicate - and, in fact, that number jumps to twenty-nine point two percent specifically in cases where I state the odds against our success to three significant digits or greater. I have already taken that supposedly 'unknowable' factor into account with my calculations."

"And you expect me to believe that you've memorized all these case studies and performed this ridiculously complicated calculation in your head within the course of a normal conversation?"

"Yes. With all due respect to your species, I am not human. While I freely admit that you do have greater insight into fields such as emotion, interpersonal relations, and spirituality than I do, in the fields of memory and calculation, I am capable of feats that would be quite simply impossible for you. Furthermore, if I may be perfectly frank, the entire purpose of my presence on the bridge is to provide insights such as these to help facilitate your command decisions. If you're not going to heed my advice, why am I even here?"

"Mm. And we're still sitting at three thousand seven hundred to one against?"

"Three thousand, seven hundred and forty five to one."

"Well, shit. Well, let's go around, then."

The Vulcan your Vulcan could sound like if he wasn't made of straw, I guess? Link

Comment author: Romashka 30 December 2014 08:35:21PM 1 point [-]

What I find curious about StarTrek models of... well, intelligence, if starship building is any indication of it... is that Romulans are on the same page as Vulcans. Forget 'Vulcans are more rational/logical/... then Humans'; they haven't outstripped the other subspecies! How have they been using their philosophy since Surak?

Comment author: CCC 31 December 2014 06:08:18AM 1 point [-]

Surak's philosophy was never about improving scientific progress. Surak's philosophy was all about shutting down all hints of emotion, with the explicit intention of shutting down anger specifically, and thus preventing the entire Vulcan species from blowing itself up in a massively destructive civil war.

Vulcans, and by exension Romulans, are significantly more intelligent than humans; this is an advantage that both subspecies hold, and Surak's philosophies don't change that. Surak's philosophies speak of the inappropriateness of any sort of emotional reaction, and praise slow, careful, methodical progress, in which every factor is taken into account from all possible angles before the experiment is begun. Surak's philosophies speak out against such emotional weaknesses as enjoying one's work; a Vulcan who enjoys science may very well decide to move into a different field instead, one in which there is less danger of committing the faux pas of actually smiling. (Surak's philosophies go perhaps rather too far - to the point where a close association with a risk-taking species like humanity is probably a good thing for the Vulcans - but they do accomplish their aim of preventing extinction via civil war).

Romulans, on the other hand, have no difficulty showing emotions. Some of them will enjoy their science, they'll take risks, they'll occasionally accidentally blow themselves up with dangerous experiments (or lose their tempers and blow up other Romulans on purpose). Somehow, they've managed to avoid suicidal, self-destructive civil war so far... but I'm somehow not surprised that the Vulcans have failed to outstrip them.

Comment author: Romashka 31 December 2014 07:03:52AM 1 point [-]

And yet it is still so easy to imagine such an outcome. Actually, I am more surprised that they chose such similar roads more than they are close in achievements. For example, maybe Vulcans would have made breakthroughs in areas that have no value for Romulans, and viva a versa.

Comment author: CCC 31 December 2014 07:54:19PM 3 points [-]

That the Vulcans and the Romulans have incredibly close levels of technology is surprising, yes; but not nearly as surprising as the idea that the Humans, the Klingons, the Betazoids, and about a hundred or so other species all have such incredibly similar technology levels, and all without any hint of shared history before they developed their seperate warp drives.

Comment author: Romashka 31 December 2014 08:20:11PM 0 points [-]

Aww, maybe we should control for the Mysterious Space Police culling thing, and then the results would diverge like preschoolers let out on a May day. Like, there's a Prime Prime Directive. The MSP didn't apprehend Nero (natch), and look what happened?!

...I'm making a fully general counterargument, aren't I?:)

Comment author: CCC 04 January 2015 09:22:56AM 0 points [-]

Well, considering that it's a fictional universe, the reason why so many species have such similar technology levels is clear; it's more enjoyable to listen to stories about species who are close enough technologically that there's some narrative tension about who will win in a given contest. While you can tell stories about vastly more powerful empires (see, for example, Q) such stories are better taken in small doses; and Q never actually goes flat-out against the Federation, because if he does, the Federation will lose instantly and there will be no story. (Occasionally, the Federation has an effect in a Q-vs.-Q conflict, but that's as far as it goes).

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "the Mysterious Space Police culling thing", though.

Comment author: Romashka 04 January 2015 10:22:55AM 1 point [-]

Agree. I meant there were other aliens far more technologically advanced who regulated the rates of development. (Sorry, I am not very interested in this discussion, but maybe someone other might be.)

Comment author: CCC 11 January 2015 04:35:49PM 1 point [-]

Thank you for the explanation.