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ciphergoth comments on Rationality Quotes May 2013 - Less Wrong
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-- Paul Crowley
This is a claim about reality. Do we actually know that pulling numbers out of your arse actually does produce better results than pulling the decisions out directly? Or does it just feel better, because you have a theory now?
Years later, this unsurprising intuition is spectacularly confirmed by the Good Judgement Project; details in "Superforecasting".