gwern comments on Justifiable Erroneous Scientific Pessimism - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 May 2013 08:37PM

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Comment author: gwern 09 May 2013 03:39:08PM -1 points [-]

if the birth rate had stayed the same since Malthus's time.

That makes no sense to argue: Malthus's time was part of the demographic transition. Of course I would agree that if the demographic transition continued post-Malthus - as it did - we would see higher per capita (as we did).

But look up the extremely high birth rates of some times and places (you can borrow some figures from http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/demotrans/demtran.htm ), apply modern United States & Western Europe infant and child mortality rates, and tell me whether the population growth rate is merely much higher than the real economic growth rates of ~2% or extraordinarily higher. You may find it educational.

Comment author: James_Miller 09 May 2013 04:46:34PM 3 points [-]

But I believe that from the point of view of maximizing the per person wealth of the United States and Western Europe the population growth rate has been much, much too low since the industrial revolution. (I admittedly have no citations to back this up.)

Comment author: gwern 09 May 2013 05:02:05PM 1 point [-]

Maybe. That's not the same thing as what you said initially, though.