gwern comments on Justifiable Erroneous Scientific Pessimism - Less Wrong
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Okay, that's where I disagree: Each additional person is also another coin toss (albeit heavily stacked against us) in the search for innovators. The question then is whether the possible innovations, weighted by probability of a new person being an innovator (and to what extent) favors more or fewer people.
There's no reason why one effect is necessarily greater than the other and hence no reason for the presumption of one blade being larger.
There is no a priori reason, of course. We can imagine a world in which brains were highly efficient and people looked more like elephants, in which one could revolutionize physics every year or so but it takes a decade to push out a calf.
Yet, the world we actually live in doesn't look like that. A woman can (and historically, many have) spend her life in the kitchen making no such technological contributions but having 10 kids. (In fact, one of my great-grandmothers did just that.) It was not China or India which launched the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.
The ability to produce lots of children does not at all work against the ability of innovators and innovator probability to overcome their resource-extraction load. In order for your strategy to actually work against the potential innovation, you would have to also suppress the intelligence (probability) of your children to the point where the innovation blade is sufficiently small. And you would have to do it without that action itself causing the die-off, and while ensuring they can continue to execute the strategy on the next generation. And keep in mind, you're working against the upper tail of the intelligence bell curve, not the mode.
Innovation in this context needn't be revolution-size. China and India (and the Islamic Empire) did innovate faster than the West, and averted many Malthusian overtakings along the way (probably reaching 800 years ahead at their zenith). Malthus would have known about this at the time.
I'm not following your terms here. Obviously the ability to produce lots of children does in fact sop up all the additional production, because that's why per capita incomes on net essentially do not change over thousands of years and instead populations may get bigger. So you can't mean that, but I don't know what you mean.
They innovated faster at some points, arguably. And the innovation such as in farming techniques helped support a higher population - and a poorer population. Malthus would have known this about China, did, and used China as an example of a number of things, for example, the consequences of a subsistence wage which is close to starvation http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population/Chapter_VII :
That's not even required, though. What we're looking for (blade-size-wise) is whether a million additional people produce enough innovation to support more than a million additional people, and even if innovators are one in a thousand, it's not clear which way that swings in general.
Sure, it's just an example which does not seem to be impossible but where the blade of innovation is clearly bigger than the blade of population growth. But the basic empirical point remains the same: the world does not look like one where population growth drives innovation in a virtuous spiral or anything remotely close to that*.
* except, per Miller's final reply, in the very wealthiest countries post-demographic-transition where reproduction is sub-replacement and growth maybe even net negative like Japan and South Korea are approaching, then in these exceptional countries some more population growth may maximize innovation growth and increase rather than decrease per capita income.