Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

wedrifid comments on Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People - Less Wrong

71 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2007 06:01PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (79)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: wedrifid 22 February 2011 01:49:17AM 7 points [-]

However, if you were to wager on whether or not the dice will come up as either 5 or 6, the only rational position is to bet against it.

You need to specify even odds. Bayesians will bet on just about anything if the price is right.

Comment author: bigjeff5 22 February 2011 11:36:38PM 3 points [-]

Odds on dice are usually assumed even unless specified otherwise, but it's never wrong to specify it, so thanks.

Comment author: wedrifid 23 February 2011 02:27:33AM 0 points [-]

Odds on dice are usually assumed even unless specified otherwise

On the other hand when considering rational agency some come very close to defining 'probability' based on what odds would be accepted for bets on specified events.