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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People - Less Wrong

71 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2007 06:01PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 April 2007 06:10:51PM 2 points [-]

Rafe, name three.

Rooney, I don't disagree that this would be a mistake, but in my experience the balance of evidence is very rarely exactly even - because hypotheses have inherent penalties for complexity. Where there is no evidence in favor of a complicated proposed belief, it is almost always correct to reject it, not suspend judgment. The only cases I can think of where I suspend judgment are binary or small discrete hypothesis spaces, like "Was it murder or suicide?", or matters like the anthropic principle, where there is no null hypothesis to take refuge in, and any position is attackable.