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pdf23ds comments on Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People - Less Wrong

70 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2007 06:01PM

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Comment author: pdf23ds 07 April 2007 02:08:15AM 0 points [-]

The probability that an arbitrary person has string in their pockets (given that they're wearing pockets at the time) is knowable, and given no other information we could say that it's X%. The proper attitude towards the claim "Rooney has string in his pockets" is that it has about an X% chance of being true. (Unless we get other evidence to the contrary--and the fact that someone made the claim might be evidence here.)

Say X is 3%. Then I should say that Rooney very likely has no string in his pockets. Say X were 50%. *Then* I should say that there's an even chance Rooney has string in his pockets. In neither case am I withholding judgment. Given what you've said, Rooney, I think you might say that the latter *would* be withholding judgment? Or would you say that neither assertion is justified, and in that case, what does it mean to withhold judgment?

I think there's a post somewhere last year where Eliezer went over these points.