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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Knowing About Biases Can Hurt People - Less Wrong

71 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2007 06:01PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 April 2007 05:38:29PM 4 points [-]

You have no choice but to bet at some odds. Life is about action, action is about expected utility, and expected utility demands that you assign some subjective weighting to outcomes based on how likely they are. Walking down the street, I offer to bet you a million dollars against one dollar that a stranger has string in their pockets. Do you take the bet? Whether you say yes or no, you've just made a statement of probability. The null action is also an action. Refusing to bet is like refusing to allow time to pass.

Nor do I permit probabilities of zero and one. All belief is belief of probability.