OrphanWilde comments on Crash problems for total futarchy - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 15 May 2013 10:41AM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 15 May 2013 02:22:41PM 5 points [-]

What makes you think the "deciders" are going to make better decisions when the market is volatile? The volatility is going to represent, after all, uncertainty on the pool of betters.

(The bigger problem for such a governance model to my eye is that betting markets provide -information-. I don't see that this information is freely convertible into -decisions-. If you're betting on decisions, effectively you're voting with money.)

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 16 May 2013 06:07:30AM 1 point [-]

Might it be possible to have a kind of uncertainty feedback loop, where volatility in some areas created uncertainty, and therefore volatility, in other areas, until everything was maximally uncertain? :)

Comment author: khafra 15 May 2013 04:32:20PM 0 points [-]

I don't see that this information is freely convertible into -decisions-. If you're betting on decisions, effectively you're voting with money.

The governance model is "vote on values, bet on beliefs." It's the "values" part that lets you convert information into decisions.