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xamdam comments on "Inductive Bias" - Less Wrong

21 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 April 2007 07:52PM

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Comment author: xamdam 29 June 2010 05:23:42PM 3 points [-]

Priors don't update. That's why they're called "priors".

  • John shows up on time for meetings 30%.
  • John has been reprimanded.
  • I think there is 95% chance he will be on time for meetings from now on.

You could just say that 95% is my prior for P(OnTime|Reprimanded), but I am not sure people think this way; "prior has been updated" seems more appropriate (when the condition is history).

Comment author: DSimon 29 March 2011 03:02:41PM 0 points [-]

Just call it your "current belief".