One day I hope to not even have to persuade myself, but meanwhile I notice my prediction was correct and feel just a little bit pleased with myself.

Could use the same reasoning when predicting you won't be having a car accident, then being pleased not having bothered with your seatbelt.

When you're unsure if an event is rare or really rare, noticing that an event did not occur in a few specific situations won't much differentiate rare from really rare, since it's the expected result in both cases.