novalis comments on Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence - Less Wrong

21 Post author: elharo 22 May 2013 11:48AM

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Comment author: novalis 22 May 2013 07:53:22PM 1 point [-]

Why shouldn't I invest 100% in Berkshire Hathaway while young? Don't just hold up a sign saying diversification, because then I have to ask why BRK isn't as diversified as you're suggesting I be.

BRK buys stocks that Warren Buffet likes. So, you're hedged against anyone one company failing, but you're not hedged against Buffet's stock picking algorithm suddenly failing more globally.

Comment author: elharo 22 May 2013 11:03:19PM *  4 points [-]

I'm considering a chapter on Buffet (and Peter Lynch). More research is needed but I am not convinced that Buffet really is the super investor he seems to be at first glance. Some economists have made plausible arguments that his outsized returns are due to factors other than his stock-picking acumen.

However if I'm wrong and Buffet really is the superinvestor most people think he is, I'd be even more worried about Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett is in his 80s. What evidence do we have that his successors are equally skilled?

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