EDIT: On further reflection, my "Huh?" doesn't square with the higher probabilities I've been giving lately of global vs. basement default-FOOMS, since that's a substantial chunk of probability mass and you can see more globalish FOOMs coming from further off. 15/5% would make sense given a 1/4 chance of a not-seen-coming-15-years-off basement FOOM, sometime in the next 75 years. Still seems a bit low relative to my own estimate, which might be more like 40% for a FOOM sometime in the next 75 years that we can't see coming any better than this from say 15 years off, so... but actually 1/2 of the next 15 years are only 7.5 years off. Okay, this number makes more sense now that I've thought about it further. I still think I'd go higher than 5% but anything within a factor of 2 is pretty good agreement for asspull numbers.