my point was that, due to butterfly effects, it seems likely that this is also true for the weather or some other natural process

Hm. True. I still feel like there ought to be some simple sense in which butterfly effects don't render a well-calibrated statistical distribution for the weather poorly calibrated, or something along those lines - maybe, butterfly effects don't correlate with utility in weather, or some other sense of low information value - but that does amp up the intelligence level required.

I later said "No SI required" so your retraction may be premature. :)