my point was that, due to butterfly effects, it seems likely that this is also true for the weather or some other natural process
Hm. True. I still feel like there ought to be some simple sense in which butterfly effects don't render a well-calibrated statistical distribution for the weather poorly calibrated, or something along those lines - maybe, butterfly effects don't correlate with utility in weather, or some other sense of low information value - but that does amp up the intelligence level required.
I later said "No SI required" so your retraction may be premature. :)
Jonathan Birch recently published an interesting critique of Bostrom's simulation argument. Here's the abstract:
The paper is behind a paywall, but I have uploaded it to my shared Dropbox folder, here.
EDIT: I emailed the author and am glad to see that he's decided to participate in the discussion below.