I don't think that the likelihood of our descendants simulating us at all is particularly high; my predicted number of ancestor simulations should such a thing turn out to be possible is zero, which is one reason I've never found it a particularly compelling anthropic argument in the first place.
But, if people living in universes capable of running simulations tend to do run simulations, then it's probable that most people will be living in simulations, regardless of whether anyone ever chooses to run an ancestor simulation.
Zero? Why?
At the fundamental limits of computation, such a simulation (with sufficient graininess) could be undertaken with on the order of hundreds of kilograms of matter and a sufficient supply of energy. If the future isn't ruled by a power singlet that forbids dicking with people without their consent (i.e. if Hanson is more right than Yudkowsky), then somebody (many people) with access to that much wealth will exist, and some of them will run such a simulation, just for shits and giggles. Given the no-power-singlets, I'd be very surprised if nobody...
Jonathan Birch recently published an interesting critique of Bostrom's simulation argument. Here's the abstract:
The paper is behind a paywall, but I have uploaded it to my shared Dropbox folder, here.
EDIT: I emailed the author and am glad to see that he's decided to participate in the discussion below.