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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ - Less Wrong
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Also: A priori and in advance of learning the true outcome, I'm betting most would have thought that highway and city driving was a more difficult application for AI than cleaning a bachelor pad.
Really? I think of roads and highways as simple prepared environments, on which even the unexpected can be handled with relatively few actions - swerve, stop. A bathroom can be messy in a ridiculous variety of ways.
I realize this doesn’t exactly contradict you, but even if true (and it probably is/was) I think those “most” would not in fact think of difficulty but rather of how well you need to solve the problem. That is, a bathroom-cleaning robot that misplaces the shampoo five percent of the time might be considered “solved problem”, but a self-driving car that “misplaces” the car even one percent of the time would sound very scary. I think it’s the difference in “acceptance criteria” that makes people misrank tasks rather than relative difficulty.
I think that's because driving has to be done perfectly or there are dire consequences, which might mask the fact that it isn't as complex, compared with cleaning a bathroom, which has many tasks that could or could not be done based on the standard imposed.
Driving is considerably more complex than cleaning a bathroom, primarily because you need to interact with a large number of humans whose mental state ranges from fairly rational to OMGWTF.
Yes, but in context there are still a fairly limited number of things that they can do--stop, reverse, speed up, slow down, change direction, etc.--even if it is hard to predict which and when they will do so.
I'd wager that Lumifer comes from a place where drivers are much crazier than where you come from. There are huge differences in stuff like that from city to city.
Yes, but are there differences beyond "change in acceleration"? (given acceleration as a vector).
Just because you can measure something with three real numbers doesn't mean that their prior probability distribution isn't all over the place.
Nope. I'm talking about humans, not drivers.
That involves pedestrians, people on bicycles and skateboards, kids playing ball near the street, panhandlers who want to wash your windshield, etc. etc.