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PeterisP comments on The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ - Less Wrong
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I admit, I stopped reading the linked paper when I saw the page count, but I don't see why you're rejecting decades of 60<IQ<100 AIs as implausible (uninteresting is another matter, but some people are interested). An IQ70 AI is little more able to self-improve than a IQ70 human is able to improve an AI. Even an IQ120 human would have trouble with that. The task of bringing AIs from IQ60 to IQ140 where they can start meaningfully contributing to AI research falls to IQ180 humans, and will probably take a long time.
Not that talking about the IQ of an AI makes a whole lot of sense -- mindspace is many-dimensional and no AI is likely to land on the human manifold. But as a very, very crude approximation, it will do here.
My [unverified] intuition on AI properties is that the delta between current status and 'IQ60AI' is multiple orders of magnitude larger than the delta between 'IQ60AI' and 'IQ180AI'. In essence, there is not that much "mental horsepower" difference between the stereotypical Einstein and a below-average person; it doesn't require a much larger brain or completely different neuronal wiring or a million years of evolutionary tuning.
We don't know how to get to IQ60AI; but getting from IQ60AI to IQ180AI could (IMHO) be done with currently known methods in many labs around the world by the current (non IQ180) researchers rapidly (ballpark of 6 months maybe?). We know from history that a 0 IQ process can optimize from monkey-level intelligence to an Einstein by bruteforcing; So in essence, if you've got IQ70 minds that can be rapidly run and simulted, then just apply more hardware (for more time-compression) and optimization, as that gap seems to require exactly 0 significant breakthroughs to get to IQ180.