Yosarian2 comments on The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 July 2013 06:46PM

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Comment author: pjeby 25 July 2013 04:14:00AM 18 points [-]

Many labor market regulations transfer wealth or job security to the already-employed at the expense of the unemployed, and these have been increasing over time.

One example: raising the minimum wage makes lower-productivity workers permanently unemployable, because their work is not worth the price, so no one can afford to hire them any more.

When the government raises minimum wage, it effectively funds the development of automation, as businesses seek replacements for low-end labor. (Like Amazon buying that robotics company to build warehouse management robots.)

Heck, you could almost say that AI doesn't cause unemployment; the need for unemployment causes AI. When labor cost increases without a productivity gain, there has to be a productivity gain to make up for it, and the pain of the increase motivates businesses to actually look for alternatives to their current ways of doing something.

So every time the minimum wage goes up, companies will replace more and more of their former minimum wage workers with automation. Somehow, the politicians never catch on to this, or they know and don't care. It makes me want to scream every time I get a promotional email from some organization talking about how evil low wages are and how the minimum wage needs to be raised. Don't they know they are going to make jobs go away, basically forever?

Comment author: Yosarian2 26 July 2013 05:06:11PM 6 points [-]

As gwern pointed out above, the theoretical effects of minimum wage on unemployment have been quite hard to prove statistically. People have studied the effects of increases in unemployment rates, and the differences in employment between neighboring states with different minimum wage levels, and haven't been able to find statistically significant correlations between increases in the minimum wage and employment.

This is something economists are quite split on now; there was a recent study where something like 40% of economists thought minimum wages increases unemployment, 40% don't think it has any impact on unemployment, and 20% aren't sure.

I will say that if the fairly low levels of minimum wage we have in the US have any effect on unemployment right all, it is most likely a pretty small effect, not nearly large enough to explain the larger trends in the economy.