wedrifid comments on The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 July 2013 06:46PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 02 August 2013 04:09:32PM 1 point [-]

Privately held firms have noticeably longer time horizons, make more of these long-term investments, and that appears to be a major cause for them often performing better in the long run than publicly held businesses.

This sounds way too much like a cached thought to me. I'd like to see empirical data for that.

In general, however, we're talking about optimal planning horizons for businesses. As soon as you formulate the problem this way it becomes obvious that the answer is "it depends". I don't think a useful generic answer is possible -- businesses, from an iPhone-case producer to, say, Intel, are too diverse for that.

A related question (much studied, I think) is the impact of the agency problem on business management. It surely exists but I don't know whether it translates so straightforwardly into preferences for the short term and unjustified discounting of the long term.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 August 2013 04:13:57PM 1 point [-]

This sounds way too much like a cached thought to me.

A thought being cached is not evidence against it.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 August 2013 04:42:49PM 2 points [-]

OK, I'll be more explicit :-)

It sounds like memetic junk which on the surface looks plausible and has been circulating via the popular media for a long time though its empirical foundations are doubtful and it's usually formulated in too generic a fashion to be of any use.

As I might have mentioned before, my prior with respect to popular economic wisdom is that it's false.