Vaniver comments on The Robots, AI, and Unemployment Anti-FAQ - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 July 2013 06:46PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 02 August 2013 04:09:32PM 1 point [-]

Privately held firms have noticeably longer time horizons, make more of these long-term investments, and that appears to be a major cause for them often performing better in the long run than publicly held businesses.

This sounds way too much like a cached thought to me. I'd like to see empirical data for that.

In general, however, we're talking about optimal planning horizons for businesses. As soon as you formulate the problem this way it becomes obvious that the answer is "it depends". I don't think a useful generic answer is possible -- businesses, from an iPhone-case producer to, say, Intel, are too diverse for that.

A related question (much studied, I think) is the impact of the agency problem on business management. It surely exists but I don't know whether it translates so straightforwardly into preferences for the short term and unjustified discounting of the long term.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 August 2013 08:12:12PM *  1 point [-]

This sounds way too much like a cached thought to me. I'd like to see empirical data for that.

Note that privately held companies includes both companies held by a family (which tend to be less well managed because of the frictional costs associated with replacing upper management) and companies held by private equity firms (which tend to be well-managed). The NBER paper gwern linked through Hanson is available here, and if that link doesn't work for you I can email you a pdf.

A quote from it:

Table 1 also shows that private firms have higher profits, less cash, and more debt, even after we match on size and industry.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 August 2013 08:29:01PM 2 points [-]

Thanks for the link, it works. The paper's interesting but will take a bit of time to dig through and I can already see some iffy things in there (e.g. using sales growth as the measure of investment opportunities available). But I'll hold off expressing opinions until I read through it...