"That which has happened before is less likely to happen again" (a reference to an old Overcoming Bias post I can't locate).

Good point. In fact, that is the type of environment which is required for the No Free Lunch theorems mentioned in the post to even be relevant. A typical interpretation in the evolutionary computing field would be that it's the type of environment where an anti-GA (a genetic algorithm which selects individuals with worse fitness) does better than a GA. There are good reasons to say that such environments can't occur for important classes of problems typically tackled by EC. In the context of this post, I wonder whether such an environment is even physically realisable.

(I think a lot of people misinterpret NFL theorems.)