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Xodarap comments on Robustness of Cost-Effectiveness Estimates and Philanthropy - Less Wrong
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I think your points about the limits of quantitative analysis are a good reality check, but I'm not sure I understand the argument for the types of assessment you suggest here.
Why should I (someone who's not remarkably experienced in charity evaluation) expect my intuition about e.g. "historical precedent" to be more valid than the data GiveWell collects?