Alsadius comments on Mathematicians and the Prevention of Recessions - Less Wrong

8 Post author: JonahSinick 25 May 2013 04:12AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 26 May 2013 06:22:21AM 8 points [-]

We already have a whole industry built up around the topic of analyzing the markets. Why would this provide any improvements? I know of commentators who thought housing was a bubble as soon as 2002, but a few people talking doesn't get a bubble popped. You're talking about putting a handful of ivory-tower nerds up against the entire weight of first-world culture. I do not imagine that this could actually be successful. And frankly, given the abysmal track record of smart people poking their heads into fields they don't understand and trying to overhaul the whole thing from scratch, I suspect this effort stands a real chance of doing more harm than good.

I encourage all folks to stand up for sanity at any given time. People talking about how houses were a bubble in 2005 were doing God's work, so to speak. But making it a special effort is weird, and expecting a bunch of neophytes to do better analysis than professionals because they can do pure path is absurd. Finance done by pure mathematical methods leads to things like the Gaussian cupola fiasco - the math was impeccable, the assumptions were absurd, and the instruments underpinned by this analysis burned down, fell over, and then sank into the swamp.

My fundamental assumption of public policy is humility. Know your limits, and work within them. Do not assume that raw intelligence, good intentions, and clarity of purpose are enough to solve the world's problems, because that's the sort of mindset that leads to most of the laws we have today(and quite a few genocides as well). The market is not perfect, but it's the original superhuman artificial intelligence, and it's a pretty good one. A couple guys with PhDs in topology are not going to one-up it just by walking by and pointing out how everyone else is stupid.

(Also, anyone who actually is capable of doing really good financial analysis already is providing enormous social value. We call them "successful hedge fund managers".)