Alsadius comments on Mathematicians and the Prevention of Recessions - Less Wrong

8 Post author: JonahSinick 25 May 2013 04:12AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 26 May 2013 09:42:13AM 2 points [-]

The closest thing to finance from first principles is just to assume the EMH, use the CAPM theory to constuct a market portfolio, and practice a policy of pure commission/tax avoidance. Finance from first principles is incredibly boring - the only way to make it interesting is to start getting into second-order effects.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 27 May 2013 03:51:45PM 0 points [-]

data analysis that she understood from first principles

The closest thing to finance from first principles

Finance != data analysis.

Comment author: Alsadius 28 May 2013 02:35:27AM 0 points [-]

The comment was "lean on data analysis", as in "lean on data analysis to do finance". Yes, the analysis itself is not "finance" per se, but most of the data analysis done in finance is simple math that gets used in complex ways. It's easy enough to calculate P/E, but figuring out whether that implies you wanting to buy or sell is a much harder question. About the only way to use first principles to actually make buy/sell decisions is, as I said, to use the CAPM and just embrace your ignorance.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 29 May 2013 05:03:57PM 0 points [-]

That seems a little extreme; presumably there's a difference between using statistical tests as a heuristic you don't understand, and using statistical tests in a well-understood way, even if you're not deriving finance from first principles.

Also, CAPM isn't actually true (i.e. assumptions never hold in the real world), whereas statistics is.