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ialdabaoth comments on Changing Systems is Different than Running Controlled Experiments - Don’t Choose How to Run Your Country That Way! - Less Wrong
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nod one problem that occurs, though, is that the 'false positive' problem can be REALLY nasty for the people who DON'T fit the actual behavioral pattern, but who wind up in a situation or have an aspect of their personality that trips the sensors anyways.
It is true that the vast majority of rapes are committed by a small group of high-status predators who have a very effective schtick which is supported by our culture, and a smaller minority of rapes are committed as blatant predatory acts by low-status desperados, and an even SMALLER minority of rapes are actually committed due to a non-deliberate breakdown of communication by median-to-low status schlubs.
The thing is, the high-status predators are VERY GOOD at using culture to hide their predations, and to shift blame onto the desperados. This is why "stranger danger" is so much more engrained in the narrative than the actual statistics should bear out. And as the feminist community begins recognizing how rare the desperado is and shifting their focus to the predator, note that the next trick in the predator's arsenal is to shift focus onto the schlub.
Schlub-shaming (i.e., constructing a narrative about Nice Guys and focussing more on Nice Guy shaming than you do on fighting frat boy dickishness) helps support the predators. The schlubs need education, not shaming. I've seen far too many social networks where the fight is between the schlubs and the feminists, because the predators are REALLY GOOD at telling the schlubs that the feminists are out to get them, and egging the schlubs into making themselves obvious targets (i.e.: the PUA community).
Instead of treating the schlubs as "easy targets" to vent their rage against the socially untouchable predators, a lot of positive gain could be made if the feminist community instead explained to the schlubs that the main thing keeping them from getting laid is the predators running around making the entire environment too dangerous and hostile, and hiding behind the schlubs to do it. (EDIT: I acknowledge that this will be hard to do in practice, because the predators are so much higher-status and more powerful than the schlubs, and our social instincts say to always attack the socially weakest targets.)
Does this make sense?
The notion that "the PUA community" has anything predatory about it is a persistent misconception. On the contrary, widespread adoption of the kind of sexual scripts PUA has pioneered is the only way I can see of making enthusiastic consent into a sustainable social norm. Otherwise males will gradually erode the norm as a way of asserting/signaling dominance in a cheap, straightforward way - and many women might go along with the erosion for the most part, simply due to being attracted to a dominant attitude. Note that aspiring PUAs would not do this, because they have superior alternatives. (It would also be a huge strategic liability, when one considers the way PUA works overall)
PUAs do teach aggressive touch escalation, less talking more body language. Don't ask to kiss her, kiss her. That kind of thing.
An important part of PUA teaching is getting over feelings of guilt for your sexual feelings, which alphas and guys that are confident with women don't display.
Non-verbal communication is still communication.
To the extent that this happens, it is an efficient adaptation to prevailing norms: the escalation is not "spontaneous" at all - although that's obviously a desired effect - but is carefully calibrated to minimize 'regret' (to the extent that this is possible based on prevailing signals). PUA also teaches other techniques that balance out active escalation ("push-pull", "freeze-out"). We're talking about a very broad toolkit which can adapt to a variety of scenarios.
I do agree that on net, guys into PUA are decent well meaning human beings. When I think about it from "what would I do if I were a predator" perspective, I do get the answer that learning from and trying to influence the PUA community would be a fabulous idea with many potential upsides.
I would guess that unless there is a lot of active effort to keep guys who enjoy partaking in predatory behavior out, if we assume that such men exist, I would think that there would be some active ones in the PUA community.
Sure. If 6% of men are rapists in the general population, then I would expect 6% of PUA men to be rapists too, unless there was something actively selecting for or against rapists in the PUA set. That's just the base rate; it's no different from expecting 6% of men named "John" to be rapists.
Yes, thanks for the insights. I posted something on Facebook related to this awhile back which was a precursor to thoughts above. As discussed in the comments, I completely agree with you that there are male victims of false rape accusations as well as victims of rape, and I would really love to see a system that does not harm one group of innocents as a way to protect another.
Well, I think part of that is a higher reliance on personal responsibility - i.e., prevention techniques need to be discussed without an accusation of "victim blaming".
This can be done better if the culture's default attitude isn't victim-blaming, of course, so now the whole damn thing looks fractal.
To make the recursion explicit: most men who try to offer advice on how not to get raped are not intending to blame the victim, but a certain subset of men are very good at creating an environment of victim-blaming that causes legitimate advice to get swallowed in the 'victim-blaming' filter. (These tend to be the same kinds of men who rape.) The biggest problem is that they have a VERY successful game rigged - the behaviors that enable their raping and shaming are all seen as high-status behaviors. If we want to build a new system, the first thing we need to do is to stop worshipping men as success-objects, in the same way that we reduce women to sex-objects.
A properly 'feminist' approach would reject the whole masculine idea of adversarial dominance-hierarchies - at core, "victim-blaming" relies on the underlying assumption that there's always a Right Argument/Perspective and a Wrong Argument/Perspective and they fight like little soldiers.
A LOT of work needs to be done on all sides, to learn to respect narratives and come to understanding rather than play out dominance games with people's lived experiences.
(That is not to say that there aren't "more right" and "less wrong" perspectives to have! Just that trying to educate people that there are better perspectives adversarially is a really dumb way of going about it, and we should stop.)
Yup. As you say, this takes very careful thought. As the article linked above describes, those who enjoy partaking in predatory acts are not easy to identify, most likely have the average distribution and range of IQ including very smart ones, and are integrated into society. Some of them are also very personally interested in these topics and influencing policy. That makes changing policy well especially difficult - you have to really consider what is being said and not take anything at face value in public discussion about rape and other such topics. I'm glad that there is a growing movement working on these problems.
One quick objection here: I think we absolutely have to take everything that is said at face value, AND ALSO examine the underlying subtext. This is part of what makes it so tricky.
Example: When someone says "but I respect women!", take that at face value, and assume that they actually DO have a legitimate desire to respect women; they are just confused as to how. Use that to adjust your tactic when dealing with this person, and frame your debate with them in terms of "this is how to show your respect; the way you're doing it now isn't working" rather than "you are bad and you don't actually respect women at all". If you take that at face value and they don't act in accordance with it, of course, call them on it.
Example: When someone says, "but she was asking for it!", take that at face value, and assume that in their warped narrative they actually DO believe that consent was given, if not implied. Use that to adjust your tactic when dealing with this person, and frame your debate with them in terms of "this is why consent needs to be enthusiastic, and these are the failure modes of your approach" rather than "you are a filthy rapist!". If you take that at face value and they don't act in accordance with it, of course, call them on it.
Example: When someone says, "bros before hoes", take that at face value, and assume that they are explicitly identifying who they wish to ally with. Use that to focus your hostility here, at the root of the issue, rather than attacking the epiphenomena "but she was asking for it!" and "but I respect women!" Because in the first two cases, taking them at face value (at least at first) gives you an opportunity to identify potential allies who are stuck behind enemy lines, AND gives you an opportunity to call people out on their bullshit far better than going in guns blazing.
That's... about as much insight as I have, and it's of course subject to all the usual disclaimers; we're all stuck in this together and we're all seeing it from different perspectives.
Fair point, thanks.
I'm not sure that the serial rapists are high-status. I get the impression that they're mostly medium status (typical for the bars they frequent).
The lower-end ones are, but those are the ones that tend to get caught. The recent Steubenville case seems more common to me - people who are protected at every step, who are at the pinnacle of their social group, and who are taught over and over that they are untouchable and can do no wrong.
In a certain sense, we are looking at a Pareto power distribution, due to a combination of mechanisms - at higher levels of social power, you both have more opportunity and access, and more immunity to prosecution and even suspicion.
Remember, most rapes go unreported. Similarly, many rapists go uncaught their entire lives. The demographics may seem skewed low due to the fact that higher-status rapists are far less likely to get reported against or noticed as suspects, let alone caught and convicted.
Did you accidentally reverse something there?
Thank you! corrected.
Second thought here: has anyone read enough accounts by women who've been raped to have at least a preliminary opinion about whether rapists tend to be high status?
I wish I knew of more such data that was well compiled.
Keep in mind, that if a woman reports about a high status man raping her, he will immediately take action to silence the report and will typically have much more power to do so than she will have to get the word out.
Especially since rape tends to go together with alcohol, its hard to make a powerful and persuasive argument. "I got drunk and he had sex with me against my consent" does not hold up well in court. The woman gets accused of not being in control and "defaming" the guy, and and is quickly silenced, typically without investigation regarding the accuracy of her claim.
That's part of why the study of rape self report that I quoted is so beautiful - its the first I've seen of uncontested accounts of rape, and a set of guys actually admitting that they used alcohol intentionally for the purpose of being able to have sex with a woman even if she protests.
There is some data that I think would be interesting - the study above listed 4 different categories that they asked guys to self report for that are rape without using the "r" word. I'd love to know how many answered yes to this particular one:
2) Have you ever had sexual intercourse with someone who did not want you to because they were too intoxicated to resist?
The silencing is a big deal. Most don't fight back, and even for those who talk, it is very common for women to get court ordered to shut up. The notion that a woman might falsely accuse a man is something that is societally much more upsetting than the notion that she might be telling the truth and he might be getting away with it, and societally most people just want to avoid thinking about these topics and don't feel personal responsibility to investigate what is actually true.
trigger warning: rape discussion
I wonder if anyone else thinks that calling a non-violent sexual encounter with a person who is too intoxicated to properly consent a "rape" is a non-central fallacy?
When I think of rape, the images I get is a stalker in a dark alley, a lot of violence, lasting physical and/or emotional damage to the victim, etc. Or maybe someone using a date rape drug on you. Or maybe an abusive boyfriend or a husband using violence and intimidation to get sex from an unwilling partner. Bad things like that.
The image I don't get is a girl knowingly having too much too drink in a sexually charged setting and then someone not properly obtaining consent, so she later has misgivings about the whole thing. Or, to a ridiculous degree, the Julian Assange case. To be sure, the "taking advantage of impaired faculties" case is still clearly a bad thing and ought to be punished, but it is also clearly (to me) not in the same class as a violent sexual assault, in terms of consequences for the victim.
Yep.
This is a pretty valid point - as I mentioned earlier, there are multiple ways that consent can be violated, and lumping them all under the rubrick of "rape" makes it very difficult to discuss their causal makeup, or their actual utilitarian impact.
Agreed that there are many different shades of grey here both in severity and how the cases should be treated. That is a good point.
Generally, if a guy intentionally has sex with a woman who is too intoxicated to stop him, he does not suffer any negative consequence at all. I don't think these sorts of cases are often brought to court - way too much ambiguity to prove anything.
It would be interesting to get more data about the different ways in which this plays out. My guess is that as you imply, there are cases where women intentionally lose their ability to say no. My guess is that also, there are many cases where guys capitalize on this ambiguity with quite a lot of intention.
More plus points in my book toward a cultural shift to where saying yes before sex is the norm. If there are such groups, I'd rather have women who want to be manipulated into sex lose their ability to have this happen than to have someone be forced into a physical act against their will.
This is plausible. According to wikipedia, about 8% of all rape allegation are later deemed false. I did not see any stats on false positives (where an alleged rapist was prosecuted while being innocent). What is obvious from a cursory online search is that the consequences for falsely accused and convicted tend to be as bad as or worse than for real survivers of violent rape.
But this was not my point, I simply asked if what is being discussed as "rape" here is a non-central case.
Okay, thanks for persisting on your point - please let me know if I appropriately address it, I think I understand now but am not entirely certain.
I think that there are many types of rape. Many many ways in which it happens, and differences in motives and premeditation and other such things.
My understanding is that using alcohol or other drugs as an aid to rape a woman is far more common than what you described as your expectation. While I do not place confidence behind these numbers as there is very little actual data, my best guess is maybe something like there is a 10:1 of rapes where alcohol is used with someone the woman knows v.s. a man jumping out and attacking her from behind a bush.
My understanding is that most rapes are from men that the woman knows, often family members and/or family friends, although I am even less sure about the percentages on that and won't bother trying to make a numeric guess.
So, if alcohol with someone the woman knows is actually one of the more frequent scenarios, then I would say that the non-central case does not apply if I understand it correctly?
I would decide on whether a scenario is central or not based on the expected punishment.
Let's suppose, hypothetically, that there were no violent cases ever, that all rape cases were of the 90% variety you describe: a victim in a potentially sexually suggestive setting like a bar gets too much to drink, possibly due to some generous verbal coercion by the perpetrator, who is, rather overtly, looking for a sexual encounter. No illicit drugs were slipped in, though the lady probably overestimated her drinking capacity. She was severely impaired, but not drunk unconscious and unmoving, she was not gang-raped with pictures posted online and further bullying or blackmail followed, etc. She was not at a higher risk of pregnancy or an STD compared to if she consented. She would not have consented if she had the capacity to.
Does this describe what you think is the prevalent situation? If so, this would be a central case in that hypothetical case of what would be generally understood as "rape". Would it be punished by hard time and a ruinous life-long sex offender label? Or would an educational campaign of the sort you are describing, "only yes means yes" be a more appropriate way to deal with this case, with significant legal repercussions for the offender, but not nearly as severe as for a premeditated violent physical sexual assault?
What do you mean by "using alcohol or other drugs as an aid to rape"? Do you mean the woman is tricked and/or forced to take the drug against her will, or that the woman voluntarily takes the drug and then does something she wouldn't if she were sober? Because these are are very different situations and I would argue only the first constitutes rape.
What you are pointing to is an important problem and an element in why this is so damn complex. I do think that cases that are not extremely horrendous happen. Unfortunately, the actual horrendous ones easily get dismissed because of this.
Also, it is very traumatic for most people to have someone stick something inside of you against your will. So even if we suppose it was fairly innocent on the guy's side of the fence, that can have severe emotional consequences. Often the most traumatic thing for a lot of people who are violated is just to have their experience be completely invalidated by their friends and family.
Social ignorance propagates this particular cycle. The difficulty of and lack of interest in discussing these topics by a lot of the population propagates it.
False accusations would probably get debunked more as well as true ones being brought to justice with far fewer incidents of occurrence if as a society people really tried to find out what was true with this difficult and complex issue.