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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited - Less Wrong
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I don't think 1-3 combined can modify the conclusion that most of these applicants should be earning to give to support the one selected applicant, creating a prior of 200:1. The only realistic way this could be false is if the premise has been misremembered, or if people are vastly more willing to work for GWWC than to earn money and give it to GWWC (the motivational issue mentioned before).
But there's not a dichotomy "work at GWWC" vs. "earn to give" – the 200 people can do other work of direct social value. You seem to be making an assumption that differences in comparative advantage (those aren't picked up by the market mechanism, but that are nevertheless useful for having a positive social impact) are sufficiently small so that one should ignore them, or making assumption that having someone work at GWWC is far more valuable than having someone work somewhere else, or some combination of these things, or another assumption that I'm not picking up on.
Ah, right, I'm thinking in MIRIan terms where you can't go off and do comparable direct work somewhere else.