The experiment didn't compare cold water in the ear to other sorts of pain/distraction.
No, they did something even better than that..
Compared to baseline, average risk estimates were significantly higher during left-ear stimulation, whereas they remained unchanged during right-ear stimulation.
A recent paper in Cortex describes how caloric vestibular stimulation (CVS), i.e., rinsing of the ear canal with cold water, reduces unrealistic optimism. Here are some bits from the paper:
(CI stands for caloric irrigation which is how CVS was performed.)
It is not clear how close the participants came to being realistic in their estimates after CVS, but they definitely became more pessimistic, which is the right direction to go in the context of numerous biases such as the planning fallacy.
The paper:
Vestibular stimulation attenuates unrealistic optimism